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Current Bitcoin Carbon Emissions. The numbers. Can we discuss please?
I received a PM from a redditor about a old comment. His PM reads -
So back 10 months ago I posted this comment and you responded with the most reasoned response about the entire Bitcoin network emitting less carbon than a single 747. It made me feel much better about Bitcoin. It also confused me this past few weeks with people posting stories stating that Bitcoin will soon use nearly 0.1% of the world's energy and already consumes more power than every single solar panel in the entire world produces. Those two don't really square, so I looked back and the article you reference was from 2014. I'm curious if you've reevaluated your stance on bitcoin or perhaps have some insight that the current hysteria is just overblown?
Since I've spent the time doing some napkin math (I could be horribly wrong on this, someone please correct me!), I thought I should make this post public for everone to evaulate my maths and my reasoning. First, I would just redirect to AA's great clip on the subject - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fExR-IKozOY As for re-evaluating my position, yes, constantly. Im going to do this really quickly, so unsure of accuracy, but should give a rough ball park. http://www.yousustain.com/footprint/howmuchco2?co2=761+tons Says its about 761 tons for a 747 to fly 24 hrs. https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-power-does-the-bitcoin-network-use-391280 Claims 1 watt per 1 second gigahash. Comes out to 343 mW per second. Thats 1234800 mW per hour, which equals 29635200 mWh for 24 hrs. The formula used to calculate megawatt-hours is Megawatt hours (MWh) = Megawatts (MW) x Hours (h). In this case, I've used 24 hours since we are comparing to 24 hours of a 747 flying, so 24 MWh. So currently btc mining has a rate of 1,234,800 per MWh. Putting 29635200000 (previous mWh * 1000 for kWh) into this government calculator will give you caron comparisons. That calculator claims an equivilent of 2,481,717,074 gallons of gas consumed. Yes, thats nearly 2.5 billion. To make this comparison more comprehensible.... https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10
In 2017, about 143.85 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed2 in the United States, a daily average of about 391.40 million gallons (or about 9.32 million barrels per day).
This would be equivilent of 6.33 days of gasoline usage in the USA for a single day of mining. So go go back to our airplane analogy, the carbon calculator says that many mW = 22,055,020 metric tons of carbon emitted. I do recall looking into the airplane thing back when we were discussing it, and I remember looking at the numbers. Frankly, its impossible to believe those were accurate and im sorry. I should have double checked everything. According to - https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/hash-rate We had around "5EHash" in august of 2017, when that comment was made. We are now at 31EHash, over a 6x fold since that comment was made. Now that we have the numbers out of the way, some things to consider... These estimates are based upon the USA's carbon calculators which measures average carbon output based on the varying technologies in the US. According to the wiki the US only is around 12% (in 2016) for renewable energy. So in general, our energy is pretty damn dirty and we put out a lot more carbon than we sequester. In that AA video, he talks about the geolocation arbitrage used by miners. This makes a lot of sense. If you are going to invest 50-500 million into a mining operation, are you going to do it in a area where it costs 12 cents per hour (US average), or where it costs 3-4 cents per kwH? See - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01/13/renewable-energy-cost-effective-fossil-fuels-2020/#1c69d08e4ff2 Obviously you are going to massively reduce your operational cost as that is what will lead your investment to become profitable. Fortunately for us, and the world, many of these arbitrage opportunities are in hydroelectric and geothermal energy areas. These plants are designed to be future proofed, so enterprising mining congolmerates will move to areas where they can secure very cheap energy prices. When these companies are currently using 5-15 GwH for their cities, with 50 GwH capacity, they will happily sell their extra capacity to the mining operation since that is a very favorable economic incentive to all parties. Another factor to consider is that for every single new ASIC design, they are becoming more energy efficient. So even though the hashrate is jumping, I would say the overall energy used by the network will plateau, if it has not already done so. With GMO and other giants like Samsung entering the mining design fray, this will only speed up energy efficiency. None of this is intended to be a sidestepping of the facts - Clearly the bitcoin network uses a lot of energy. And when you have less regulated countries (china, India), it presents opportunities for locals to setup mining operations inside their locality, which then uses dirty energy, increasing carbon outputs. The amount of carbon emissions per day (22,055,020 metric tons) that is above is obviously not very accurate when you account for these arbitrage opportunties. We know for a fact many of the largest mining colo's are situated near hydroelectric and Geothermal energy plants, which means that they are practically zero carbon emissions. Since we do not know the location of every miner, due to the decentralized unregulated nature of bitcoin, it is impossible to calculate how much of a reduction of tons of carbon we will get for that calculation. But even if we are generous, and say 50% of all mining is done on renewables, that still leaves 11 million tons of carbon per day, a pretty staggering amount. There is also much to hope for with scientists claiming we can be 100% renewable energy across the entire planet. Such as scientists setting to prove through empiracle data that it is feasible to convert the entire planet to 100% renewables. Though it is probably not realistic that this will happen quickly, or even at all. To give perspective, CFC's have been banned for decades and thought not in use for over a decade, yet recent data has shown levels are increasing. There will always be industry willing to destroy the world in the future for short term profit now. We should also weigh the costs and benefits of this massive network. If bitcoin becomes adopted across the world as a currency, which if you look at places like Japan, it clearly is, then this will enable literal billions of people who are currently unbanked to join into the global financial ecosystem. The personal financial soverignty that bitcoin brings is of incalcuable value. Whether the carbon emissions are worth these trade offs is a philosophical question that probably does not have an right or wrong answer. Then we must also evaluate the carbon impact that the bitcoin network would have if cryptocurrencies were to replace traditional financial networks. There are some good analysis on the carbon footprint of banks, and bitcoin mining, coindesk has done several articles, see - https://www.coindesk.com/microscope-conclusions-costs-bitcoin/ & https://www.coindesk.com/microscope-true-costs-banking/ If we are properly to examine the impact that cryptocurrency carbon emissions have on society, then we should also examine the reduction of carbon that cryptocurrency networks will have upon the banking sector. This site Claims AC & Heating results in 47.7 % of the entire USA's electricity usage. This example is just to present a understanding of how much energy these systems use. How many Banks are there around the world that have their AC on 24/7? I can imagine just that number alone would lead to a staggering level of CO2 emissions. The coindesk article claims 591k bank branches around the world. The above aritcle claims 3.5k watts for a single central air unit. I had a family member that used to run a A/C business and I've been on top of many businesses. A bank will likely have several of those units to keep the place cool, I would estimate between 2-10 depending upon size. In more good news, Bank branches are declining, and cryptocurrencies will only accelerate this. Lets hope that bitcoin is the amazon of retail brick and mortor closures. In conclusion, there is a valid and rational concern as to the amount of power that the bitcoin network brings. And instead of being dismissive, we should recognize the incredible rate at which the bitcoin network is growing on an annual basis. From 4.3EHash to 31EHash over the last year, that is about a 8x fold increase. Since we can assume that the majority of hashpower is coming online in the last year is likely newer models, these units should be at the current efficiencies. The estimates above should be roughly accurate based on this information. This information will only be used by politicians and media congolmerates to spin a very bad negative impression of the bitcoin network. And you know what? Maybe they are right. Maybe bitcoin is growing into a massive CO2 producing beast that outweighs the benefits that it brings to society. But how can we reach a consensus on this issue unless we, the hardcore bitcoiners and techophiles, bring the numbers into sunlight and discuss?
https://preview.redd.it/q8fybks5d3r31.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d9836d98582d8652a82a99333d37b2885d4116e Bitcoin Mining Costs Vary by Region To perform a cost calculation to understand how much power it takes to create bitcoin, first, you’d need to know electricity costs where you live. In 2017, the Crescent Electric Supply Company did a state-by-state breakdown of how much it costs to mine a single bitcoin. Louisiana came in as the cheapest location at $3,224, while Hawaii was the most expensive at $9,483. As of September 2018, bitcoin’s exchange rate was valued at about $6,700 for a single bitcoin, which shows that doing the work in an area where energy costs are very low is important to make the practice worthwhile. Calculating the Cost There are lots of different bitcoin mining computers out there, but many companies have focused on Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) mining computers, which use less energy to conduct their calculations. Mining companies that run lots of ASIC miners as businesses claim they use one watt of power for every gigahash per second of computing performed when mining for bitcoins. At this rate, the bitcoin network runs at 342,934,450 watts — roughly 343 megawatts. Calculations based on EIA data reveal that the average U.S. household consumes about 1.2 kilowatts of power, meaning that 343 megawatts would be enough to power 285,833 U.S. homes. That’s quite a lot of energy — for a frame of reference, that equates to about a third of the homes in San Jose, California. Since 1 watt per gigahash/second is pretty efficient, it’s likely that this is a conservative estimate. Also, a large number of residential users take more power to run their miners. BITCOIN may be a useful way to send and receive money, but cryptocurrency doesn’t come for free. The community of computer-based miners that create bitcoins uses vast quantities of electrical power in the process. The electric resource-heavy process has led some experts to suggest that bitcoin isn’t very environmentally friendly. Therefore, using SOLAR ENERGY to mine Bitcoin is considered more suitable for people.
Mining Newbie here, is it possible to mine in Gigahashs?
Hey, me and some friends are trying to get into litecoin mining, originally we were going to mine Bitcoin, but I was running the numbers and this online calculator and it says we'd make 1,000's of dollars a day on a 38 gigahash miner for 128 dollars. My friend brought up that all of the litecoin miners we saw on the internet were labelled in kilohash instead, would this mean we wouldn't be able to use this miner to mine in litecoin, and we should stick with bitcoin?
The energy cost of a single bitcoin transaction could power 2.7 American homes for a day.
Hi guys, I am currently writing my bachelor's thesis on Bitcoin and while talking about Bitcoin's threats and weaknesses I've calculated that a single bitcoin transaction could power 2.7 American homes for a day. That seems ridiculously high. My assumptions were that on average, mining companies use 0.352 watt of power for every Gigahash per second of computing power, which means that the bitcoin network currently runs at 1,156,918,400W (1,156 MW). That's enough to power 930,000 average American households' daily electricity usage. With about 345,000 Bitcoin transactions per day, that works out to 2.7 households daily usage of electricity per one Bitcoin transaction. Did I make a mistake somewhere? How is this sustainable?
Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 45 - Breadth and Scope
Hey all! GoodShibe here! Yesterday I spoke about those off doing great work on our behalf, taking the lead or pushing the boundaries of what Dogecoin can do. I think today is a great chance for everyone to get a real sense of what's going on here - what a group of 65,000+ Shibes has and is accomplishing as we speak (err... type). So, please, if I've forgotten anyone, don't feel bad -- especially if you're doing something in another sub -- just let me know in the comments and I'll add it to the list, okay? Here we go! Recently Completed Projects
Experiment.com is now taking Dogecoin! Meaning that we're now able to directly fund SCIENCE with Dogecoin -- which is freaking awesome in my books. Thanks to vu0tran and their efforts to get a change.org petition up and running -- and the community for making it happen!
Altcend, created by altcy is a browser extension that allows you to send DOGE to Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Google+, and Reddit users no matter where they are in the world. Here's their original launch thread!
WP-Dogecoin, created by studionashvegas is a WordPress plug-in that lets you show your Dogecoin wallet address on your WordPress blog or site.
Have I missed something? I'm sure I've missed something! I can keep going but I'm already running late for work (got carried away)! Post in the comments and I'll add as I have time over the course of the day :D) It's 9:14AM EST and we're at 52.53% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate is spiking from ~68 to ~89 Gigahashes per second but our Difficulty is still riding low at ~1027! Go! Mine! Have fun! As always, I appreciate your support! GoodShibe
Chill everyone, let's talk bitcoin internals, fundamentals and what it means for price.
So I've been watching bitcoin for a couple weeks, and i got a bit of my own dough into it. Of recent everybody seems obsessed with the vast accumulation of wealth in the hands of few, and the hordes of panicky upstarts trying to get in, who might get screwed by falling prices (for instance see this lovely post Hyperbole Now I'm not saying that the doomsday scenario the prophets are peddling is impossible. But it's about as possible as the wonderland prophets who're hoping for a 100'0000% return. Trojans On a related note, yeah some trojan started targeting wallet.dat, surprise surprise. Incidentally, that the same machine you're making VISA payments from and operate your e-banking? You worried about that too? Not? Well I don't see VISA shares falling every time somebody infects himself with a keylogger. Pricing So I thought a fair bit about where prices are going to go, and why, and I asked a lot of people and talked this over, and after this, a few things remain that give some direction. A price of a security (like bitcoins, or gold, stocks, fiat money etc.) is ultimately determined by supply and demand. If you understand supply and demand, you understand prices. So an important consideration is who's bidding for bitcoins, and who's asking for a price to sell them, and what prices to these parties consider reasonable. Buyers (bid) This is a diverse group of people, it may include people who use the small but fledgling bitcoin economy to buy coins to pay other people in them. But by far and large, it's probably a speculation driven market, people buy bitcoins in the hopes the value will rise. The psychology speculative buying ends up being about a zero-sum game. Somebody buys, somebody sells, the overall activity neither adds or removes coins from the market, and hence when viewed over long periods (months/years) this activity is just white-noise. This defines the demand, and demand rises and falls with bitcoin popularity and confidence. Some week confidence may be low, some it may be high. Sellers (ask) This roughly falls into two camps. The speculative sellers and the miners. Speculative selling (that is sells of coins bought earlier) is the other half of the zero-sum game, it neither adds or removes coins overall, and is hence just white noise. Freshly minted coins (by miners) which enter the market are the real driver of supply. The limited and small constant supply myth Every 10 minutes 50 new bitcoins are found. That is a fact, and if it strays from that, the difficulty adjusts to keep it there. If you look at it purely from the point of view of scarcity, this would seem a small (but nearly ignorable) inflationary influence. This however would be an over-simplification. There are substantial amounts of mined coins held by people who've been mining them for the better part of a year. They've been hoarding these coins, and commonly I'd refer to this group as bitcoinionaires. Their actually supply capacity vastly exceeds the day to day supply of fresh coins. Since these stockpiles are the real driver of the supply, it's important to understand when the miners/bitcoinonaires will sell and when they will not. Mining economics The mined bitcoins where obtained by the activity you call mining. This is neither an easy nor free way to get coins. It takes energy, room, time to setup, etc. There are constant costs attached to this (paying rent and electricity) as well as recoverable costs (buying hardware to do it) and unquantifiable costs (work rendered to make it all happen). You can think of mining as a business that has expenses and profits. In order for that business to work, the constant expenses must be covered, the recoverable expenses must be recoverable, and the work invested must be repaid. This all leads to a fairly straightforward calculation which goes something like this: You pay around 1000$ for one 1gh/s (one gigahash per second) in hardware. Running that hardware you pay about 2-3$/day/gh in energy. If you factor in rent of some or another form, you probably pay between 1-5$/day/gh in rent. If you also factor in resale value decay of the hardware you bought, you immediately lose about 20% upon buying the hardware, and around 30%/year. As a business you probably plan to run your miner for more then half a year, so about 50% of the hardware cost has to be recovered in a reasonable time-frame, say 3 months. Which means there's a hardware recovery calculation that you should do that factors in at about 2$/day/gh If you sum that all up, you get a running cost of mining that is around 5-10$/day/gh. One gigahash will get you about 1.2btc/day at current difficulty, which is at current prices somewhere around 17-20$. It is fairly obvious that your expenses need to be lower then your profits. If they are not, what happens? Difficulty You may have heard about difficulty, in essence it is a constant value (for 2 weeks) that aims to keep the rate of fresh coins at about 50coins/10minutes. Obviously, the more difficult it gets, the less coins 1 gh/s will mint, and the more difficult the economy of a mining business becomes. miner psychology Since you can't simply acquire and sell hardware capacity on a dime (it takes weeks and months to do it), and since you will need months to recover your boot costs, miner selling is out of necessity a long-term affair. So what can a miner do when the price of btcs falls below their operational cost?
They can give up mining, much to the delight of everyboy who has not given up, because if they do, the difficulty will go down, hence making their business profitable again. This is essentially an inflationary influence (since btcs get easier to obtain with lowering difficulty, hence making miners willing to sell at lower prices).
They can stop selling, hoping for better times when the prices are more favorable. This is essentially a deflationary influence, since the big stockpile supply of coins held by miners will simply dry out. They'll not sell for months and perhaps years.
They can sell at prices below their operation cost, in which case they soon cease to be a factor, because they're out of business.
bitcoinionaire psychology If prices go down and you sit on a big pile of coins, you lose wealth. Nobody likes loosing wealth, I don't like it, you don't like it, the bitcoinionaires don't like it. In order to become a bitcoinionaire you need to be a hoarder. If you wouldn't hoard, you wouldn't have tens of thousands of bitcoins. A hoarder essentially never likes letting go of his stash. You get rid of as little of your stash as possible to keep your risk and costs in a reasonable balance. Which means, these fat-cats depicted in the picture above, they didn't sell you all they had, not even a fraction. They sold you just about as much as they where personally willing to sacrifice. This means that they're still having the majority of their wealth in the game, and they absolutely do not want to see that devalued to zero. I've talked to a bunch of these very decent folks, and their sentiment is that they're in for the long haul. True they'll sell "big" positions occasionally, but they keep the majority of their assets stashed away. If you're expecting the miners/bitcoinionaires to suddenly explode with supply at lowering prices, you're most likely mistaken. the difficulty/price correlation For the reasons outlined above, there's a very simple correlation. If prices go down and difficulty goes up, by far and large supply dries out. However lower prices drive demand (in bitcoin volume) up, because as the price goes down, the buying power (in $/btc) of the would-be buyers increases. And if the market self-balancing fails, then the difficulty adjust will step in once enough miners have given up. In sum these dynamics lead to deflation. Since difficulty and hardware turnover moves at a much slower pace then prices, prices are far more likely to adjust to difficulty then the other way around in the long term. What does all of this mean? Keep a cool head, and don't let the market fool you. Trust your fundamentals, technicals and sentiment analysis, and tightly control your risk only to what you personally can afford to lose. If you buy in a mania or sell in a panic (we've see both the past 2 weeks), you're probably going to lose (or diminish your profits). Study bitcoin and what drives it carefully and come to your own conclusion. Adjust your strategy carefully and maybe, one day a couple years from now, you can be a bitcoinionaire. If not, life is full of other opportunities, so just pick yourself up and try the next. So chill everyone, and have a good time :)
Hi, I recently read an interesting post on the bitcoin forums about the electricity cost of keeping bitcoins secure. I did some of my own calculations base on figures from bitcoinwatch
kilowatts per gigahash * cost per kilowatt * network gigahash per hour = bitcoin running cost per hour
So at 650 watts per gigahash at 15 cents per kilowatt hour. 0.65 * $0.15 * 13,300 = $1,297 per hour Divide that by the number of transactions per hour (309) 1,296.75 / 309 = $4.20 per transaction. I was unable to find figures, but i can't imagine it costs anywhere near that amount for visa or paypal to process a transaction. When all blocks are mined won't bitcoin transaction fees need to significantly increase to cover these costs? Or to look at it another way bitcoin miners will spend over $11 million dollars this year on electricity, which is 17.6% of bitcoin's market cap. In contrast the federal reserve printing budget is ~$650 million or 0.0812% of USD value. A first glance this doesn't seem very efficient to me. This money is going straight to the electricity companies and not back into the bitcoin economy. Where does the money come from to pay for this and how is it sustainable in the long run?
Did I miss anything? Do you have a Dogecoin community you want featured? Let me know! It’s 8:45AM EST and Sunday is FunDay, right? Right? Our Global Hashrate is holding at ~1430 Gigahashes per second and our Difficulty is holding at ~16674. As always, I appreciate your
At a Difficulty of 267,731,249 each Gigahash of mining is worth about 0.008 BTC so you should get about 125 Gigahash per BTC in order to break even. Background: It takes, on average, 232 * Difficulty hashes to find a block: 4,294,967,296 * Difficulty Divide that by your Hashrate to get seconds between blocks: 4,294,967,296 * Difficulty / Hashrate Divide that into seconds per month (60 * 60 * 24 * 30 = 2,592,000) to get blocks per month: 2,592,000 / 4,294,967,296 * Difficulty / Hashrate Multiply by 25 to get Bitcoins per month: 2,592,000 / 4,294,967,296 * Difficulty / Hashrate * 25 Since Difficulty has been going up about 100% per month, the lifetime return on your Hashrate is double that (1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8... =2): 2,592,000 / 4,294,967,296 * Difficulty / Hashrate * 25 * 2 Do some algebra to simplify the formula:
So once the algebra is done the formula comes out to: Lifetime Bitcoins = 0.03 * Hashrate / Difficulty. The BTC per Gigahash calculations are: 0.03 * 267,731,249 / 1,000,000,000 = 0.03 * 0.267,731,249 = 0.00803193747
So you're sick of just mining on your GPU, and not a fan of the electric bill after a month of mining? There has to be a better option out there than your loud GPU in your gaming computer. There is! Shortly after GPUs became popular for bitcoin mining, enterprising folks started looking at other things they can re-purpose to mine bitcoins more efficiently. Around mid-year 2011, the first devices sprang up that are called FPGAs or Field Programmable Gate Arrays. These are nothing new to the hobbyist community, they've been around for a while for crackers and other security-conscious folks looking at ways to defeat cryptographic locks. Hey! I know something that uses cryptographic calculations to secure its network! BITCOINS! Yep, so some miners developed their own boards and slapped some FPGA chips on them (most commonly the Spartan-6), and wrote specific firmware and "bitstreams" to more efficiently calculate bitcoin hashes. The first generations were sort of slow, but still they had better efficiency than a GPU. Some of the latest generation included the Icarus boards, Cairnsmore, x6500, and ModMiner Quad. In early 2012(i think my timeline is right), Butterfly Labs(BFL) was selling their own FPGA miner that hashed at 800 Mhash/s using 80 watts and only cost US$600 amazing! These grew very popular, but people could see that FPGAs still weren't the most efficient way to hash their shares. BFL then announced that they would be designing their own chips that would be orders of magnitude faster than anything ever seen. These would be the ASICs (or Application Specific Integrated Circuit)everyone is raving about. ASICs are--as the name implies--specifically designed for one thing, and one thing only. Bitcoins. This is all it can do, and can't really be repurposed like an FPGA to other applications. Who wouldn't want a US$150 "Jalapeno" that hashes at 3.5 GIGAhashes/s using only power from a USB port?? Crazy! So summer 2012, BFL says they will ship before Christmas. Various things happen and we now still don't have any confirmed ship dates from BFL. A few other companies have sprouted up, ASICminer which I believe is developing their own chips to mine themselves, but in a responsible way as to not threaten the network with a sudden influx of hashing. bASIC was a fiasco that was developed by the creator of the ModMiner Quad(which is actually a fantastic miner, I own one, and love it.) where he took many preorders, promised lots of people amazing ASIC performance, but in early 2013 the stress of the whole endeavour got to him and he gave up, refunded money(I think it's still being refunded now, or maybe it's been cleared up already.) Avalon is the only company we know has ASIC mining hardware in the wild. It is not certain exactly how many are out there, but they have been confirmed by independent sources. The Avalon units are expensive(75 BTC) and have been in limited production runs (or batches) of a few hundred units that were pre-sold out very quickly. All of this info is gleaned from the Custom Hardware forum over at bitcointalk.org over the past year or so I've been involved in bitcoin. I may have some facts wrong, but this is the gist of the situation and hopefully gives you an insight on the state of the hardware war against bitcoin Thanks for reading!
Someone check my calculations but based on the current difficulty and cost of electricity, this is what it costs in power to keep mining for new Bitcoins: 6,931 Th/sec Current network hash rate 6,931,000 Gh/sec In Gigahashes per second 0.5 W/Gh/sec Efficiency of latest ASIC mining rigs (most likely much worse than this) 3,465,500 W/sec Power consumed per second to mine BTC 3,466 KW/sec In Kilowatts per second 12,475,800 kW/h In Kilowatts per hour 0.110 $/kWh Average cost of electricity in the USA 1,372,338 $/hour Cost of mining Bitcoin
Cex.io, maintenance, mining, end of life. . . . a.k.a. "The End is near"
So, I was noodling about and playing with some math today, then focused in on cex.io. Some background . . .I've been watching difficulty with a passion and turning about the idea in my mind of "What happens with the cex.io model when difficulty surpasses maintenance?" and "When will this happen?" I decided to math it out. Current maintenance is $0.18. the current return in a month (without difficulty change) is $0.25. That leaves $0.07 or 28% of $0.25. Sometime soon you start losing money, which, with the current monthly growth rate of 1% a day vs. maintenance, happens sometime this month. This means it will start costing money to run the hash and 1 gh/s, in a sane world, is worth nothing, because who would buy something with negative returns and no future value. This leads me to more questions:
So what happens on cex.io?
Do they change the maintenance fee to prolong this for an month or so?
If they do, why was there higher margin for them before?
Has anybody seen this happen before?
Do they just mine that last bit of btc out (because they do it at cost) and then liquidate the hardware?
Do they have another more efficient set of hardware ramping up/lying in wait?
If they switch to hardware that is profitable, what happens to old shares that were no longer profitable?
Is it sold as new shares?
Is it all over for cex.io mining?
Anyhoo, just some thoughts. If anybody has insights or other ideas/perspectives, it would be awesome to hear them. Edit: Found the cex terms of service clause relating to this:
11.5. Mining with using User's Gigahashes can be stopped by CEX.IO if the amount of the Maintenance Cost exceeds rewards for each mined block or if the mining is economically inexpedient. The decision to renew Bitcoins mining is made by CEX.IO, taking into account calculations of mining effectiveness.
If you are good at science, or if you are an engineer, please check boogie79 analysis below. It is better than mine.
Edited to add that this analysis was done by boogie79. I studied theoretical physics. It has been a while since doing these kinds of things, but here is my take on it from a brief glance. I feel you might have mixed up your power and energy units somewhere, and also some of the assumptions I’m not sure of their validity. So there are 70,000,000 gigahashes per second on the bitcoin network. Each gigahash apparantly uses 0.0075 kilowatt of power (or 7.5 watts0. Given that a kilowatt is just a 1000 joules/per second, which is like the hashrate expressed in seconds, the bitcoin network will consume 525,000 kw of power. This is the rate of energy consumption in other words. You can find this result by multiplying 0.0075 kilowatt/per gigahash * 70,000,000 gigahashes. The 70 watts of average power consumption for a computer that’s actually on, which you assume strikes me as reasonable enough, so let’s use it. If an average personal computer has 70 watts in power, then the power needed to maintain the bitcoin network expressed in personal computers would be as follows: 525,000 kw / 0.070 kw per computer = roughly the power of 7.5 million personal computers. This seems about right. In terms of energy consumption each hour, the bitcoin network simply expends 525,000 kw hours (as energy consumption is power consumption * time in hours). Next, on the basis of these data, you want to see how much the bitcoin network would consume power if it only had 10,000 members. Now you make a very important assumption in the next move in your calculations. You assume that power consumption in the bitcoin network is linearly related to the number of users. This may be valid for the blackcoin network, but I don’t think it works for the bitcoin network. I really don’t know the details of these matters. But I thought that power consumption by the bitcoin network is not so much dependent on the number of users as it is on the number of people mining which is related to the difficulty of solving the puzzles in the blockchain and the market value of bitcoins. Whatever this relationship is, it certainly can’t be linear in the number of users. Or I have I misunderstood this? In any case, we can avoid this problematic issue by instead calculating what the power consumption of the blackcoin network would be with 500,000 users. Because as I understand it the blackcoin network is simply powered only by the users, so the assumption of linearity is more plausible here. Here also we need to consider two other important details, however. First, isn’t the blackcoin network only maintained by those who actually have their wallets open on their computer? Or is it anytime someone has their computer on? In any case, I thought it certainly couldn’t be so when their computers are off. At any point in time then, only some fraction of the 500,000 computers with accounts will therefore maintain the blackcoin network. Second, the 70 watts per personal computer may be right, but hardly all of that is spent on maintaining the blackcoin network. This seems in constract apparantly to the data you gave for the bitcoin network, though I’d have to know more exactly about what they mean by the data to say for sure (whether this is energy expenditure just on the bitcoin network, or energy expenditure in general by the individual devices part of which goes towards maintaining the bitcoin network).You mentioned that it is 5%, so I'll just use that. Given these two considerations, lets consider the worst case scenario: all 500,000 users of the blackcoin network have their wallets open and the 70 watts of their pc’s is contributing 5% only to the maintenance blackcoin network. This means we are at a network power consumption of 500,000 * 0.070 kw * 5% = 1,750 kw. That figure is clearly much less than the 525,000 kw needed for the bitcoin network currently with 500,000 users. It’s only about 0.33%. If we take into account the other consideration I mentioned above, then it could potentially even be much less (though again to be fair we really also need more info on where these figures are coming from and what they mean exactly for the bitcoin network).
Shibes, now is the time to build our own rocket to the moon! And this is how:
Right now we are in an interesting discussion about our future – the future of our beloved dogechain. It's the backbone of our economy. Every tiny shibe uses the same playground to play and dig and to have all this fun. Lately, as i'm sure every shibe noticed, we got an offer from litecoin to merge our mining. First of all, thank you ! Thats very kind. But in my honest opinion, i think we are strong enough to stand on our own little paws. We don't need a bigger brother, who protects us when we are in trouble or someone wants to do us harm. We are already strong enough to protect us on our own. And we found good friends in the playground, like the good guys from Digibyte. But we have to be aware of our future. We have to defend ourself when we are threatened. We have to protect our dogechain. The critical point is reached, when our blockreward is not enough to keep all the miners digging. The less people dig, the lower is our security of our dogechain. Especially when the first asic miners get released and only a few of them can totally overcome our global hashrate. Yes, we can fight them if we change our algorithm to sCrypt-n, or Keccak, or X11, or... We become a pure PoS Coin after the last block halving. In my opinion we should get rid of the old PoW system, after the point we are fully mined out (our blockreward hits 10k coins). Instead we should change to pure PoS with an interest of 1-5% per year. This would favour every shibe who believes in our coin. Just imagine the crazy buying and mining mania after everyone understands that dogecoins are limited. It would also make our blockchain safe to 51% PoW attacks! This would also allow everyone to participate in the network, practically you could PoS mine with every smartphone or laptop or tablet, you just need your wallet on the device ! Every shibe can participate !! And for our well experienced digging shibes, we could start our own Doge-Multipool for every other hash algorythm. Right now our network is at 80 gigahash ! Thats 80000 megahash, or in other words: 360(!) bitcoin buying power every day! (if you calculate with 0,0045 btc/mh) Now imagine that people pour 200k dollar in our economy every day. We can create Doge-Multipools for sCrypt-n, X11, Keccak or even Sha256! Imagine people to mine bitcoins, just to get paid out in dogecoins! Doesn't that sound to good to be true ? Well maybe, but we have 1 year in front of us to build our rocket. And i honestly think, that this is the most efficient rocket to fly us to the moon. All of us ! Wex <3
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